Solana (SOL) Price Dropped to 2025 Low, But CME’s Launch of Solana Futures Ignites 16% Relief Rally
Solana (SOL) price dropped to a 2025 low at $125 on February 28. However, the altcoin entered a 16% relief rally after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of Solana futures on March 17. The futures product now awaits regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Solana Bears Fail to Pin SOL Under $130
Since February 24, Solana has formed a series of lower lows leading up to its yearly low at $125 on Friday. During this period, a clear bullish divergence formed between the price and relative strength index (RSI).
Solana 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As illustrated in the chart, the rally on the 4-hour chart took place at the back of these bullish divergences. The bullish signal led to a swing pattern failure on the 1-day chart.
Solana 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Will SOL Sell-Off Again in March?
As widely discussed over the past month, Solana’s token unlocks go live on March 1, which will see 11.2 million SOL entering the circulating supply. There will be a 2.84% increase in the total market cap, which is worth $1.62 billion at the moment.
Unlock Event Analysis
The unlock event is largely investor-based, with companies such as Galaxy, Pantera, and Figure looking to secure between $150 million to $3 billion in unrealized gains.
Keyrock Trading, a crypto markets maker platform, predicted the outcome based on analysis data from more than 16,000 token events. They highlighted that investor-based unlocks witnessed an average of 5% correction 30 days before the event. In this case, SOL suffered a significant 60% decline over the past month.
Weighted unlock per category. Source: X.com
According to Keyrock Trading, the unlock event is a medium-size (1-5% supply) and stated, “Medium unlocks historically see an ~8% decline within 30 days post-unlock.”
Conclusion
Solana’s price dropped to its 2025 low, but the CME’s launch of Solana futures sparked a 16% relief rally. Despite the recent bullish divergence, the immediate overhead resistance remains at $160. Flipping this level into support will further validate $125 as the local bottom. However, the token unlocks going live on March 1 may lead to a short-term sell-off, potentially forming a bottom around $110-$120.
FAQs
* What triggered the 16% relief rally in Solana’s price?
The CME’s announcement of Solana futures launch on March 17, pending regulatory approval from the CFTC.
* What is the expected impact of the token unlocks on Solana’s price?
A short-term sell-off, potentially forming a bottom around $110-$120, as predicted by Keyrock Trading.
* What is the current overhead resistance in Solana’s price?
The level of $160.
